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Super Bowl Hangover

Written by The Team @ EA Sports Consultants   
Tuesday, 09 August 2011 07:47

NFL 2011 Betting SeasonThankfully, the NFL regular season is just about a month away.  Most drafted rookies are in camp, free agents are signed and teams are getting down to business.  We here at EA Sports Consultants are doing our work too.  Earlier this week we finished formulating our initial Power Rankings on all 32 NFL Teams.  With that complete, we have begun to take a look at our early season technical analysis.

The “Super Bowl Hangover” is one of the intriguing angles we like to keep an eye on during the first four weeks of the NFL season.  Since 1997, the Super Bowl Champion is 23-31-2 Against The Spread (ATS), the first 4 weeks of the next season.  That is a covering percentage of 42.5%.  Not very good for having just won the Super Bowl!  Fairing even worse, is the Super Bowl Loser.

The runner-up is a measly 22-33-1 ATS, the first 4 weeks of the next season, good for a cover rate of 40%.  If you combine both the winner and loser, you will get an ATS record of 45-64-3 for a covering percentage of 41.3% since 1997.


To most, the above statistics come as a surprise, but they shouldn’t.  Teams that played in the Super Bowl are normally very popular teams.  They receive the most attention in the media throughout the offseason.


Oddsmakers realize this and know that the “average Joe” loves to bet favorites.  Therefore, often times the Super Bowl participant’s lines are inflated  two or three points in the beginning of the season.  These teams are typically on prime time a lot early in the year.  The oddsmakers know that the only thing the public likes more than favorites in the NFL, are “Prime Time Favorites”.


The typical square loves this and will find every reason to bet Super Bowl teams early on.  However, the sharps that have bet against Super Bowl teams the first quarter of the season have won an amazing 59% of their wagers.  In this business anytime you can win 59% of the time, your bankroll will build quickly.  This is just a one of the many edges we have used over the years at EA Sports Consultants when analyzing the NFL.  Our 66-39-1 record for a win rate of 63% last year is evidence of that.  For more insight like the “Super Bowl Hangover”, visit
www.easportsconsultants.com.

EA Sports Consultants

 
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