Written by The Team @ EA Sports Consultants
Monday, 22 August 2011 07:16
1. Sandwich Games
These are Non-Divisional Games that take place in between Divisional games. Look to bet against teams that are in this spot. Often time’s teams will have come off a very physical and highly emotional contest versus a division foe. Win or lose these contests tend to take some steam out of teams the following week. When a team has another division game on deck they can be caught licking their wounds and looking ahead. Look to bet against teams in this spot from mid season on as the wear and tear of the NFL season will begin to takes its toll.
2. Teams Heading Into The Bye Off A Win The Week Before
When a team is getting ready for a contest and has their bye on deck often times they struggle to maintain focus and will have a less than stellar week of practice leading into the game.
That said when these teams are coming off a win the week before, they tend to fare worse. It is simply human nature; that players will feel good about themselves coming off a win and will be looking forward to their bye week after the game. Bettors should look to wager against teams that find themselves in this situation. This angle becomes even stronger if the opponent is a Non-Divisional team.
3. Blowout Losses On National TV
Look to play on a team the following week after they get destroyed on National T.V. Most bettors’ initial reaction will be that they stink followed by “I am going to bet against them next week.” This would be wrong. Bet on them! Chances are you will be getting an extra point or two in line value that you would not have gotten if they did not stink up the joint. Remember betting in the NFL is often mirage like. Teams are not as good or as bad as they appear from week to week. Players and coaches in this league have a lot of pride and more times than not will bounce back the following week with a strong effort.
4. Messy Wins
Look to bet against teams coming off messy wins. We consider a messy win to be where the winning team commits three turnovers or more and still manages to win the game. These wins are often an anomaly and a sign that something is wrong. However, the oddsmakers will not adjust the line accordingly the following week because the team won the game. This is a great opportunity for bettor to make “value” bets against these teams the following week.
5. Home Favorites Coming Off Lousy Defensive Efforts
Look to bet against teams that gave up over 30 points in a loss if they are favored at home the following week. Allowing 30 points in a loss is a problem that normally does not get corrected overnight. Anytime you can find a home favorite who is struggling defensively you want bet on the underdog. Lots of times you will find the underdog will win the game outright. In all most all instances the “backdoor” will be open for the underdog in these spots because of the defense or lack thereof regarding the favorite!
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