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Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Oregon Ducks Lines and Predictions

Written by Charlie Jimenez   
Saturday, 10 September 2011 06:28

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Oregon Ducks LinesThe Nevada Wolf Pack and the Oregon Ducks will face each other this Saturday at Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks were shot down in last week’s marquee matchup of Top Five opponents, giving up 40 points to LSU in a 13-point loss. The knee-jerk response this Saturday is going to be to side with those powerhouses that were upset in season opening games last week.

However,(doing a dead-on impression of Lee Corso) tells us, “Not so fast, my friend!” Adding further fuel to the fi re is the fact that teams playing in Game Two off a SU and ATS loss are just a 41% ATS proposition the last 30 seasons – including 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS if the foe won 10 or more games last betting season.

Even though the loss of star QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Vai Tua likely means Nevada’s offense will not average more than 500 YPG for the fourth straight season, we’re still big fans of head coach Chris Ault.

Now in his 27th year at Reno, Ault is 32-6 SU and 23-15 ATS in lined games against opponents off a loss, with only two of the six defeats coming by more than 17 points. His Wolf Pack can also claim a 3-0 ATS mark in the first of consecutive road games and a 5-2 ATS record versus Pac-10 foes.

Factor in Oregon’s meek 4-10 ATS effort as a double-digit favorite against the WAC – along with a profound sense of disappointment over a poorly played game (“The drops, turnovers, and penalties are what killed us,” lamented head coach Chip Kelly) – and we expect the visiting lobos to ring the ATS register at Eugene today.

The betting line for this match: Ducks listed as 226-point favorites versus the Wolf Pack, while the game's total is sitting at 63.

Betting trends to consider:
Nevada is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Nevada is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Nevada's last 10 games on the road
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Nevada
Oregon is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Oregon is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

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