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NCAA Football Betting: TCU vs. Baylor Free Pick

Written by Charlie Jimenez   
Wednesday, 31 August 2011 07:44

TCU vs. Baylor Odds and Free PickThe free pick for this game is from our friends at Payneinsider.com Your Trusted Sports Handicapper: Baylor +7

The Frogs suffered a major hit with the graduation of QB Andy Dalton and four starters on the offensive line, but we feel superb head coach Gary Patterson has elevated this program to the ‘reload instead of rebuild’ level.

That’s particularly true on the defensive side where Patterson’s charges have limited foes to an average of just 12 PPG over the past three seasons (held 17 of their 39 opponents to single digits while pitching three shutouts).

Thus, we’re not about to go messing with the Fort Worth Frogs against a team they ripped apart last year (beat the Bears 45-10, outyarding Baylor 558-263).

First of all, TCU has some business to take care of before heading off to the Big East in 2012.

Bet on this game at Bodog sportsbook.

The seniors on this squad are the winningest in school history at 36-3 SU, with the losses coming against the likes of Boise State, Oklahoma and Utah. Second, 30 of their 36 wins have been by 16 or more points, substantially more than tonight’s TD spread. And finally, the Frogs tend to hop right out of the gate when playing away from Amon G. Carter Stadium, posting a highly profitable 10-2 ATS record on the road in season openers.

Those numbers look even better when stacked alongside Baylor’s horrendous 17-42-2 ATS mark as a home underdog since 1990. While we do feel the Bears will become a ‘Play On’ team this year (provided QB Robert Griffin III stays healthy), we simply can’t backed a single-digit home dog whose defense was 200 yards worse than its opponent’s last season.

Note: should the number drop to 5 points or less by kickoff, be aware that the Froggies have won and covered 16 straight games versus Big 12 opponents when the pointspread closes in that range.

 
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